The study aims at investigating the volatility of crude oil prices in the global market for the period (1990 - 2017). It also aims at estimating the returns of the global oil market and the risks that it faces as a result of volatility in the price of crude oil by using GARCH Models. The study revealed that the average return of volatility of Brent crude prices in the global market is about (1.12%) per month as well as the presence of a risk ratio in the global oil market of about (%0.32).

The study aims at measuring and analyzing the effect of crude oil price volatility on the Iraqi fiscal policy response (1990-2017) using NARDL model. The study found that there is a positive، non-linear، long-term relation between the volatility in the global market and the fiscal policy of Iraq for the enquiry period. It revealed that an (1%) increase in crude oil price will lead to an increase in public expenditures by (%0.650) while a (1%) decrease in crude oil price will lead to a decrease in public expenditures by (%0.628). It also revealed that a (1%) change in state revenues of Iraq will lead to a change in public expenditures by (%0.941). In addition, study found that any shock occurs in crude oil prices will lead to an increase in public expenditures of Iraq to reach its peak after one season. After the passage of six seasons since the shock started، public expenditure will be reached to equilibrium before the shock.

Abstract: With the advent of trade liberalization in recent decades , the hypothesis has drawn wide spread (Export - Led Growth) the attention of explain it and its economic performance, Rate of GDP growth (GDP), exports and imports in Iraq has reached during the period under consideration (2014 - 2003), 14.2%, 18.5%, 27.7%, respectively. This research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between The liberalization of international trade and economic growth in Iraq. The period (2003 – 2014) using ARDL model , This research is derived from a main – hypothesis adopted in this paper is that economic growth in Iraq will benefit from the exports and imports , To achieve this hypothesis ,Annual data is converted to quarterly data; as well as the use of augmented Dickey - Fuller Test , applying ARDL model and tests for the second order tests , applying and error correction model (ECM) , in addition to The Test for Granger causality. The research concluded that there is a long – run equilibrium relationship between GDP and exports and Imports, We also can see a quick response in the GDP when exports and Imports are changing. It also shows that exports have the largest proportion; And exports account for the largest Proportion , The estimated Model Reflects A very high level of quality assessment; This also illustrate the value of the coefficient of determination amounting to (%92) , as well as the fact that the estimated model does not suffer from the problem of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity , as well as parameters stability as reflected in CUSUM test. The assessment results refered that a(%10) change in exports on the long – run will lead to a(%3.42) change in GDP , ceteris paribus . It also refered that a(%10) change in imports will leads to a decreas in GDP by (%-0.08) , ceteris paribus and this is insignificant because P-value is more than more (%5). This is emphasize by the hypothesis states that “export – lead – growth”.